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Rationality Meetups: Probability and Predictions
Event by: Efektivní altruismus Česko
Location: "Bezlepkově" U Vojtěcha, Šmeralova 12, Praha 7
Online event
About event
The goal of the meetup is to deepen our understanding of rationality and become better at using it in our lives.
We will be discussing these required readings: Probability and Predictions (except Interlude). Please get familiar with the required texts in advance: https://www.lesswrong.com/s/TQW9brvXJ5Fajorr4
To give you an idea about the content, here is the intro to the required readings chapter on LessWrong:
„Nearly everyone is very very very overconfident. We know this from experiments where people answer true/false trivia questions, then are asked to state how confident they are in their answer. If people’s confidence was well-calibrated, someone who said they were 99% confident (ie only 1% chance they’re wrong) would get the question wrong only 1% of the time. In fact, people who say they are 99% confident get the question wrong about 20% of the time.
It gets worse. People who say there’s only a 1 in 100,000 chance they’re wrong? Wrong 15% of the time. One in a million? Wrong 5% of the time. They’re not just overconfident, they are fifty thousand times as confident as they should be.“
___________________________
This meetup is part of a series of six open-format meetings. There’s no need to register in advance; you are welcome to join even if you can’t attend every session. English speakers welcome. You can see an overview of all the upcoming sessions as well as our other events here: https://www.efektivni-altruismus.cz/kalendar-akci/
If you are interested in the topic but cannot attend, leave us your contact details and we will get back to you with other opportunities (events, discussions, lectures, projects): https://forms.gle/jqVaFWPhcPZmiFFy8
We will be discussing these required readings: Probability and Predictions (except Interlude). Please get familiar with the required texts in advance: https://www.lesswrong.com/s/TQW9brvXJ5Fajorr4
To give you an idea about the content, here is the intro to the required readings chapter on LessWrong:
„Nearly everyone is very very very overconfident. We know this from experiments where people answer true/false trivia questions, then are asked to state how confident they are in their answer. If people’s confidence was well-calibrated, someone who said they were 99% confident (ie only 1% chance they’re wrong) would get the question wrong only 1% of the time. In fact, people who say they are 99% confident get the question wrong about 20% of the time.
It gets worse. People who say there’s only a 1 in 100,000 chance they’re wrong? Wrong 15% of the time. One in a million? Wrong 5% of the time. They’re not just overconfident, they are fifty thousand times as confident as they should be.“
___________________________
This meetup is part of a series of six open-format meetings. There’s no need to register in advance; you are welcome to join even if you can’t attend every session. English speakers welcome. You can see an overview of all the upcoming sessions as well as our other events here: https://www.efektivni-altruismus.cz/kalendar-akci/
If you are interested in the topic but cannot attend, leave us your contact details and we will get back to you with other opportunities (events, discussions, lectures, projects): https://forms.gle/jqVaFWPhcPZmiFFy8