Season Opener: On the Edge with Nate Silver

Join the John Adams Season Opener with Nate Silver, trailblazing statistician, author, and founder of polling platform FiveThirtyEight, as he unpacks the art of prediction, the allure of risk, and the high-stakes drama of American politics. From accurately forecasting elections to redefining the role of data in journalism, Silver has become one of the most trusted—and provocative—voices in the analysis of uncertainty.

His newest book, 'On the Edge', explores the lives of risk takers—a community of like-minded people he calls “the River”—whose mastery of risk allows them to dominate and shape so much of modern life, defying convention, courting chaos, and shaping the world in unprecedented ways. “Riverians” are not just thrill-seekers, but people whose decisions reflect the volatility of our time: from professional poker players to Silicon Valley CEOs. From the casino floor in Las Vegas to the White House, their stories offer insight into our high-stakes world that feels increasingly uncertain.

In a keynote talk and in-depth interview with journalist Casper Thomas, Silver will explore the tools that made him famous. His forecasting and modelling prowess, epitomized by his statistical analysis of politics, economics and sports provide the ultimate entry point to look at the current state of American politics and the world around us.